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Research Reports

Institutional-quality equity and quantitative research — financial modeling, scenario analysis, and systematic strategy.

Jul 28, 2026

Position Sizing

Kelly Criterion Position Sizing

This paper derives credit-spread position sizing for AJAX's options-selling book from first principles, showing that the Kelly criterion is not an assumed utility preference but a direct consequence of how wealth compounds under repeated betting provable via the Strong Law of Large Numbers alone. It extends the classical binary-bet Kelly formula to the continuous, piecewise-linear payoff of a vertical credit spread, and shows that a defensible position size requires a genuine subjective edge (the empirically documented variance risk premium) rather than the market's own risk-neutral pricing.

RTX

Feb 9, 2026

DefenseNEUTRAL

RTX Corporation: Positioned for a Multi-Year Defense Re-Rating, but Valuation Reflects the Outlook

RTX's earnings are structurally supported by missile defense demand, sustainment-heavy procurement programs, and a recovering commercial aerospace aftermarket, providing multi-year revenue visibility. However, current valuation already reflects normalized earnings and backlog visibility, leaving forward returns dependent on operational execution and sustained geopolitical defense spending rather than multiple expansion.

Price Target: $206.00

XAU/USD

Jan 30, 2026

CommoditiesOVERWEIGHT

Gold (XAU/USD): A Structural Reserve Asset in an Era of Fiscal Dominance and Geopolitical Fragmentation

AJAX Research maintains a Strategic Overweight on gold as elevated sovereign debt, persistent fiscal imbalances, sustained central bank accumulation exceeding 1,000 tonnes annually, and rising geopolitical fragmentation have transformed gold from a cyclical hedge into a structural reserve asset. Over the past five years, gold has outperformed the S&P 500 by approximately 28.5% on a total return basis, reinforcing its capacity to preserve real value through macroeconomic stress.