Contributor Voices

Analyst Commentary

Market commentary from AJAX contributors: independent perspectives, published under their own byline and separate from AJAX's own equity and quant research.

Sep 17, 2026

Markets

The Fed hiked rates, so why did bonds and stocks rally?

The Fed raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, but long-term Treasury yields fell, TLT moved higher, and the stock market rallied. The biggest lesson is that the Fed's interest rate and long-term Treasury yields are not the same thing.

By Harrison Nguyen

Sep 17, 2026

Markets

FedWatch and the question behind a 90% rate-hike probability

Fed Funds futures are pricing roughly a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting, but a 90% FedWatch probability sounds almost certain while it is really a reflection of futures-market pricing. The biggest moves often come when reality turns out differently.

By Harrison Nguyen

Sep 11, 2026

Markets

Treasury buybacks and the question behind rising long-term yields

The U.S. Treasury tripled its long-term bond buyback to $6 billion, yet long-term yields continued rising. The main lesson is that a government action should not be analyzed by itself: one buyer can influence the price, but the entire market decides the price.

By Harrison Nguyen

Aug 28, 2026

Markets

Jackson Hole and the Question Behind the Jump in Short-Term Treasury Yields

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech moved the 2-year Treasury yield sharply higher while the 30-year barely moved, illustrating how different maturities respond to different expectations and how markets move when expectations change, not when policy changes.

By Huu Nguyen