AJAX Research

Research-Driven
Investment Intelligence

Institutional-quality equity analysis, quantitative modeling, and market commentary. Built for serious investors.

Market OverviewLive — 10:33 AM ET
SPX
7,673.87+0.97%
NDX
29,443.64+2.32%
DJI
53,795.12+1.16%
VIX
16.24+2.40%
US3M
3.73%+3.0 bps
US10Y
4.64%-4.5 bps
US30Y
5.20%-2.9 bps
GC
4,138.90+1.18%
CL
76.14-5.23%
META——AAPL——GOOG——NVDA——SPX——VIX——BTC——GOLD——OIL——US10Y——META——AAPL——GOOG——NVDA——SPX——VIX——BTC——GOLD——OIL——US10Y——

0

Reports Published

0

Sectors Covered

YTD Performance

Jan 1 – Present · Model Portfolio

Portfolio objective: risk-adjusted returns uncorrelated to broad market beta.

AJAX
SPX
NDX

Market Snapshot

SPX

7,673.87

+0.97%

NDX

29,443.64

+2.32%

DJI

53,795.12

+1.16%

RUT

3,008.12

+0.88%

DXY

99.86

-0.10%

WTI Crude

$76.14

-5.23%

Gold

$4138.90

+1.18%

3M Yield

3.73%

10Y Yield

4.64%

VIX

16.24

+2.40%

Live · refreshes every 15s

Latest Coverage

Research Reports

Jul 28, 2026
Position Sizing

Kelly Criterion Position Sizing

This paper derives credit-spread position sizing for AJAX's options-selling book from first principles, showing that the Kelly criterion is not an assumed utility preference but a direct consequence of how wealth compounds under repeated betting provable via the Strong Law of Large Numbers alone. It extends the classical binary-bet Kelly formula to the continuous, piecewise-linear payoff of a vertical credit spread, and shows that a defensible position size requires a genuine subjective edge (the empirically documented variance risk premium) rather than the market's own risk-neutral pricing.

RTXFeb 9, 2026
DefenseNEUTRAL

RTX Corporation: Positioned for a Multi-Year Defense Re-Rating, but Valuation Reflects the Outlook

RTX's earnings are structurally supported by missile defense demand, sustainment-heavy procurement programs, and a recovering commercial aerospace aftermarket, providing multi-year revenue visibility. However, current valuation already reflects normalized earnings and backlog visibility, leaving forward returns dependent on operational execution and sustained geopolitical defense spending rather than multiple expansion.

PT: $206.00
XAU/USDJan 30, 2026
CommoditiesOVERWEIGHT

Gold (XAU/USD): A Structural Reserve Asset in an Era of Fiscal Dominance and Geopolitical Fragmentation

AJAX Research maintains a Strategic Overweight on gold as elevated sovereign debt, persistent fiscal imbalances, sustained central bank accumulation exceeding 1,000 tonnes annually, and rising geopolitical fragmentation have transformed gold from a cyclical hedge into a structural reserve asset. Over the past five years, gold has outperformed the S&P 500 by approximately 28.5% on a total return basis, reinforcing its capacity to preserve real value through macroeconomic stress.

View all reports →

Commentary

Recent News

Aug 4, 2026

ARGUS Brief

ARGUS Brief: Iran War Missile Depletion, Oil Surge, Tech Earnings — Pre-Market

US precision missile depletion amid Iran conflict is reshaping energy markets and geopolitical risk premiums. Oil rallied 2%+ on uncertain peace talks, with energy majors posting blowout earnings. Meanwhile, defense and AI tech stocks are diverging sharply based on exposure to either military/sovereign tech or commercial AI.

Aug 3, 2026

ARGUS Brief

ARGUS Brief: Iran Diplomacy Drives Equities, Oil Retreats — Post-Market

Wall Street rallied to record closes on renewed Iran nuclear talks and de-escalation expectations, with crude oil plummeting 7% on canceled military action. Tech gained on improving sentiment around AI capex ROI, while geopolitical risk premiums compressed across commodities and FX markets. The broader narrative centers on risk-off-to-risk-on rotation as military tensions ease and policy clarity improves.

Aug 3, 2026

ARGUS Brief

ARGUS Brief: Iran De-Escalation Eases Geopolitical Oil Risk — Pre-Market

Trump's decision to cancel military strikes on Iran and pursue nuclear negotiations has triggered a sharp reversal in oil and geopolitical risk premiums. With no active US-Iran talks underway despite the de-escalation signal, markets are pricing in temporary relief from acute Middle East supply disruption, though structural tensions remain. Energy refining and precious metals are repricing as dollar weakness follows softer risk sentiment.

Jul 31, 2026

ARGUS Brief

ARGUS Brief: AI Capex Justified; Tech Remains Bid — Post-Market

Amazon's Jassy assuaged investor concerns over massive AI infrastructure spending, with Nasdaq futures climbing on the earnings beat. Microsoft shares continue surging post-earnings as binary risk clears. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 remains pinned at 7,500 as options traders establish clear support/resistance, suggesting consolidation ahead of potential breakout.

Jul 31, 2026

ARGUS Brief

ARGUS Brief: Iran Tensions, Energy Security, Macro Headwinds — Pre-Market

Geopolitical escalation around Iran dominates macro backdrop as Trump convenes Cabinet and US tightens sanctions, while energy markets react to Suez security threats and shipping disruptions. Domestically, US economic growth faces import headwinds despite robust demand, and the BoE signals caution on rate cuts amid inflation uncertainty. Tech earnings provide partial relief with Microsoft and IBM signaling longer-term AI monetization.

About AJAX Research

Institutional Analysis, Independent Voice

AJAX Research applies the analytical frameworks of top-tier investment institutions to deliver equity research that is both rigorous and actionable. Built by investors, for investors.

01

Fundamental Research

Bottom-up equity analysis grounded in financial modeling. DCF, comps, and scenario analysis for every coverage initiation.

02

Quantitative Rigor

Data-driven decision-making with statistical validation. Every thesis is stress-tested against historical evidence and market reality.

03

Independent Perspective

No investment banking conflicts. No sell-side pressure. Research driven solely by analytical merit and evidence.

04

Risk-Adjusted Thinking

Position sizing, drawdown analysis, and margin of safety are built into every recommendation. Risk management is never an afterthought.